By Alexandr Mitrofanov

A look at an anthill can be unsettling. Crowds of insects running here and there, thousands of little black heads, bodies and legs could even cause nausea if one is not prepared properly for the experience.

It's not unlike taking a look at the Czech political scene. Masses of politicians moving on their winding paths, attacking each other, or one group attacking another, then suddenly embracing yesterday's enemies. ... All this could seem too complicated to be understood without disgust.

The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) government of Mirek Topolánek was not expected to survive an Oct. 3 vote of confidence. At press time, the question was who will get the next chance at forming the Cabinet? Will it be Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) leader Jiří Paroubek? Could it be Topolánek again? Or an entirely different figure?

There is only one man who holds the key: President Václav Klaus. No matter that he prefers acting behind the scenes. Constitutionally, he is the one who appoints the first and, if needed, second candidate for prime minister. Klaus made his first choice with Topolánek. If this appointee failed, there is no power in the country that can make the president choose Paroubek, whose party placed second in the June general election.

Klaus stands in a monarchlike position. He, in fact, can appoint anyone. The only limit is that this is his last chance. According to the constitution, the third and last attempt to form a government is not up to the president but to the speaker of the Chamber of Deputies.

Klaus has kept silent on his plans, though his secretary, Ladislav Jakl, told the media before the vote that the president would probably not appoint Paroubek as new prime minister. The reason is clear: Paroubek could only gain majority in the chamber with a little help from the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM), which would have to provide tacit support for his potential Cabinet. This is a problem for the ČSSD.

All these political events followed the overwhelming result of the June election. The Chamber of Deputies being divided into two equal parts — the right and left with a hundred seats each — created a unique situation. Logically, it should have been resolved in order to achieve a working government with unique tools as well. The one and only way to smooth antagonism between the ODS and ČSSD is a grand coalition.

However, this was rejected, mainly by ODS leaders headed by Topolánek. They remembered the poor harvest of a familiar alliance with ČSSD, called the opposition agreement, from 1998 to 2002. The ODS was later beaten by the ČSSD in the 2002 general election.

Last but not least, ODS members tend to be more ideological than pragmatic. ČSSD members are a kind of lepers to their conservative opponents because of the character of the ČSSD political base. The poor and less successful are described as greedy and lazy by ODS spin doctors.

This is a clue to the labyrinth of the Czech post-election government. The ČSSD, under the extremely ambitious and politically clever Paroubek, will not tolerate any form of ODS-led government. As long as the ČSSD is an ally of the KSČM, the party holds veto power over such a government.

Paroubek destroyed the potential union of the ODS, Christian Democrats and the Greens even before the three parties were confirmed by Václav Klaus as the basis of a new government. And this is why almost no one expects that Parliament will approve Topolánek's government this week. The reason is simple: The ČSSD and KSČM have repeatedly stressed that they would not vote for the Cabinet.

However, the general public is mainly reluctant to acknowledge any hint of the real growth of the KSČM's infiltration of the political system. If Klaus' secretary, Jakl, just leaked his boss's real plans, there probably would not be any real protest against a president refusing to appoint KSČM ally Paroubek as prime minister.

The second part of the president's problem with this scenario could be characterized as a burst of morality. Paroubek, in reality, could gain a more-than-100-vote majority only by winning people from the opposition camp. Some call it buying. The president can declare he will not be part of the game. No matter that the same strategy was used by Klaus, having appointed Topolánek. Klaus never forgets that he is not only the president but also the honorary ODS chairman as well.

Let us go back to the ants. The brain of this insect has about 250,000 cells. A human brain has 10 billion, so a colony of 40,000 ants has, collectively, the same size brain as a human. If the human's name is Václav Klaus and he agrees with the formula, a simple solution could be produced by this brain. Jakl said the president would probably not appoint anyone prime minister if Topolánek's Cabinet fails. Instead, Klaus would arrange negotiations with all parliamentary parties in order to make them agree to a nonconstitutional scenario pushed by him.

The solution would be sought via a general agreement on a nonpolitical Cabinet with the aim of getting the country to an early general election. If Klaus did this, it would cause fierce protests from the ČSSD because Paroubek needs his own prime ministerial attempt in order to keep his position strong as ČSSD leader. Also, the KSČM would shout that the president ignores the constitution heavily. By the way, the party would be right.

But a man standing over an anthill with a big stick in his hand tends not to heed the insects' indignant protests. Having the strong majority support of his village as a mighty sorcerer, he feels in his bones that he can afford to do things an ordinary citizen would never be allowed to.